PALM BEACH COUNTY – As we inch closer to the end of the regular season, there is a lot of good news to share in our area.
Anywhere from 12 to 15 area teams may end up qualifying for the postseason. Of course, it depends on what transpires between today and Saturday, Nov. 3.
With that said, the FHSAA has released its most recent points system for the 1A through 8A classes. It focuses on a team’s strength of schedule, strength of victory, quality wins, and quality loss(es).
For example, if a team has a winning record but has played a relatively soft schedule, then that team in question might not be in a great playoff position. But if a team had a tough schedule, but played well even in a loss or two, that factor will get looked at in a more favorable light.
Anyway, here’s where our potential FHSAA playoff teams stand if the season ended today.
CLASS 1A
PAHOKEE (5-4): Would now be the No. 2 seed in Region 4 with Would be No. 1 seed in Region 4 with 38.44 points. The Blue Devils are on a two-game losing streak, including last week’s 35-14 loss to 4A powerhouse Cocoa. This explains why they’re down from last week’s total of 40.38 points.
What’s more alarming is that Pahokee has been overtaken by Hawthorne, an upstart program out of the Gainesville area that has 39.78 points (1.34 points ahead of No. 2 Pahokee) and looks to clinch the No. 1 spot in Region 4. This North Central Florida team (9-0 current record) can do that with a convincing Week 11 win over Bronson (0-9), which would give them an undefeated regular season record of 10-0.
They’re no longer No. 1 in Region 4, and could slide even further down if they lose the Muck Bowl at home to Glades Central this weekend.
Bottom line: Pahokee does not want to go into the Class 1A playoffs with a 5-5 record and a three-game losing streak. But it can realistically happen, given how things have turned out over the past few weeks with both Muck teams.
Key wins for Pahokee: Every win is a key one for the 1A team because they have played everyone in a much higher classification (3A, 4A 6A, and 8A). The Blue Devils have four losses, but they were to potential 8A No. 1 seeds Vero Beach (Region 3) and Delray Beach Atlantic (Region 4), potential 4A No. 1 seed Cocoa, and a potential 8A playoff qualifier in Seminole Ridge (Region 3).
Remaining game: Week 11 vs. Glades Central in annual Muck Bowl (4A)
CLASS 2A
GLADES DAY (5-4): Would now be No. 4 seed in Region 4 with 37.33 points. This is down from last week’s total of 38.88 points, when the Gators were the No. 2 seed.
The last two weeks have been tough on the Gators, who were the projected No. 1 seed in Region 4 with 39.71 points prior to its 42-19 blowout loss to 3A Cardinal Newman in Week 9. Even though Glades Day scored a 63-26 blowout win over Florida Christian in Week 10, it’s considered a loss in some respects because the Muck team’s opponent has a record of 2-7.
Bottom line: The Gators have been rewarded for respectable wins early in the season, but the very back end of their regular season schedule is weak. Point blank.
Key win for Glades Day: The four losses to Benjamin, King’s Academy, Moore Haven, and Cardinal Newman. Glades Day gets respect from the FHSAA just for scheduling these potential playoff teams this year.
Remaining game: Week 11 vs. St. John Paul II (3A)
CLASS 3A
KING’S ACADEMY (9-1): With a landmark 22-21 comeback victory over previously unbeaten Benjamin in Week 10, the Lions were rewarded handsomely by the FHSAA for their efforts. As a result, they end their regular season at No. 1 in Region 2 with 39.60 points. This is a bump up from last week’s rating of 38.44 points, which was good enough for the No. 2 seed.
Key win: Relative to most teams in Class 3A, the Lions actually have played a respectable schedule. As crazy as this sounds, their close 35-28 loss to Gulliver Prep (4A) in Week 8 may have helped them more than any of their eight blowout wins and their instant classic win over Benjamin. The blowouts include a 26-0 win over Glades Day in Week 3. We can’t say this enough; play a tough schedule, and you’ll get rewarded for it.
Remaining game: Regular season is complete.
Important note: King’s Academy has essentially clinched a spot in the Class 3A playoffs and will await the FHSAA’s announcement of its opponent, first-round playoff date, and first-round playoff game, which will come next week.
CARDINAL NEWMAN (7-2): Would be the No. 4 seed in Region 2 if the season ended today. This team is now at 35.78 points, down from last week’s tie with Father Lopez as the No. 3/4 seed in Region 2 with 36.75 points. This team will almost certainly clinch a 3A playoff spot with a win in Week 11 over West Boca Raton.
Key win for Cardinal Newman: The regular season schedule because this team is not afraid to play anyone, regardless of whatever perception may be out there about them. There has not been a team in recent memory that would schedule to play all three Muck teams in the regular season (Pahokee, Glades Day, and Glades Central). It takes a lot of guts to do that, and if we were the FHSAA, we would reward them for that as well.
Cardinal Newman finished the regular season with a 1-2 against the Muck, with an early season loss to 1A Pahokee, a blowout win in Week 9 over 2A Glades Day, and a 41-6 blowout loss to 4A Glades Central last week.
Noteworthy: Cardinal Newman beat Spanish River (8A), Jupiter (8A), Suncoast (6A), Olympic Heights (7A), and Royal Palm Beach (7A) earlier this season, which has helped a lot in that this team has taken down five larger schools in the area. Can Newman take down a sixth large school in 7A West Boca Raton on Friday night?
We’ll find out if the favored Crusaders do what’s expected of them by beating the 1-8 Bulls. If an upset loss occurs for Newman on its Senior Night, there could be a major upheaval in the 3A-Region 2 playoff seedings, which means a possible playoff elimination in embarrassing fashion for this team.
Remaining game: Week 11 vs. West Boca Raton (7A)
BENJAMIN (9-1): Would remain as the No. 2 seed in Region 4 with 40.10 points. It’s down more than a point from last week’s total of 41.22, but all in all, Benjamin’s shocking 22-21 road loss to King’s Academy doesn’t hurt much in the grand scheme of things.
The Buccaneers seem to have done enough to hold off No. 3 seed Delray Beach American Heritage (6-3; 39.78 points this week) for a first round bye in the 3A playoffs. They overtook the Stallions for the No. 2 spot last week.
Key win for Benjamin: The Buccaneers would have beaten every single team on their schedule, but a buzzer-beating comeback win by King’s Academy spoiled a perfect regular season for them. You simply can’t penalize a team much for going 9-1 in the regular season. You just can’t do it, even if you want to.
With that said, the Bucs have two big wins this season over Glades Day (30-8 in Week 1) and Gulliver Prep (22-14 in Week 4).
Remaining game: Regular season is complete.
Important note: Benjamin has essentially clinched a spot in the Class 3A playoffs and will await the FHSAA’s announcement of its opponent, first-round playoff date, and first-round playoff game, which will come next week.
DELRAY BEACH AMERICAN HERITAGE (6-3): Would remain as No. 3 seed in Region 4 with 39.78 points. This is a bump up from last week’s rating of 39.13 points, thanks to a 20-0 win over Key West in Week 10. The former projected No. 1 seed was heavily penalized last week in its 34-16 road loss to 4A Glades Central, losing more than two points in the process.
Key win for American Heritage: Like Cardinal Newman, this team has a relatively tough schedule in comparison to its 3A counterparts. Unlike Newman and everyone else in Palm Beach County, only one team on its schedule was against a Palm Beach County team (4A Glades Central in Week 9). For playing anybody at any location and any given Friday, the FHSAA has rewarded the Stallions handsomely, despite their recent three-game losing streak that ended last week. They almost always play above their competition, win or lose.
Much respect to American Heritage for that.
Remaining game: Week 11 vs. Everglades Prep Academy (3A)
ST. ANDREWS (5-4): Would remain as the No. 6 seed right now with 35.00 points.
Key win for St. Andrews: To be honest, it’s all about the FHSAA’s decision to expand the small school regional seedings (1A-2A-3A-4A) from four to six playoff teams this year. The move allows two more teams to qualify for the postseason, as St. Andrews could turn out to benefit from it in a big way. It provides some suspense for the mid-tier teams, which is a good thing.
Concern: St. Andrews is only 0.11 in point differential over Everglades Prep (34.89 points) and could ultimately get eliminated from playoff contention when the final FHSAA playoff points and seedings are determined next week. This team was demolished by 4A Coral Springs Charter last Thursday night in a 47-0 road loss.
The Scots did not lose anything whatsoever in their 47-point loss from Week 10. But they will lose big if they find a way to go down in defeat to 4A Pine Crest in Week 11.
In other words: The Scots are absolutely in a must-win situation. Their playoff lives depend on it.
Win on Senior Night or go home for the postseason, Scots.
Important note: Everglades Prep made a point differential gain of 0.01 this week at 34.89, up from last week’s rating of 34.88 points. Even though this team is still sitting on the outside looking in at No. 7, it is most definitely sensing an opportunity to steal a playoff spot with its current 3-6 record but arguably tougher schedule. This includes last week’s 25-24 double-overtime loss to Miami Christian.
Remaining game: Week 11 vs. Pine Crest (4A)
CLASS 4A
GLADES CENTRAL (6-3): Would now be No. 2 seed in Region 4 with 39.56 points, up from last week’s No. 3 seed projection with 38.50 points. This team has remarkably moved up two spots in the last two weeks, when they were at the No. 4 spot with 37.14 points prior to their 34-16 home win over 3A Delray Beach American Heritage in Week 9.
In other words, Glades Central is “sneaky” good this season and should not be overlooked from this point forward. The Muck’s best team right now is on a four-game winning streak and looks to snap a two-game Muck Bowl losing streak to 1A Pahokee on Saturday night (Nov 3; 5 p.m. kickoff) at Anquan Boldin Stadium.
Key win for Glades Central: Say whatever you want about the Muck’s highest classification team. Talk about the blowout losses to University School (35-6 defeat in Week 1) and Dwyer (42-14 defeat in Week 3). Talk about the 29-22 home loss to 4A defending state champion Cocoa in Week 6. Go ahead and talk, talk, talk about them Raiders.
But what absolutely nobody can say – especially now – is that Glades Central is scared to play anybody. Of any team in Palm Beach County, the six-time state champion is most willing to play anyone, anywhere, and anytime – regardless of classification. They have the wins and losses to prove it over the years, and that’s what the FHSAA absolutely loves about this team.
Sure, Glades Central lost 29-22 to defending 4A state champion Cocoa at home in Week 6. But this team has scheduled current and former powerhouses Dwyer (7A), University (4A), American Heritage (3A), and Pahokee (1A) for the regular season.
Remaining game: Week 11 at Pahokee for annual Muck Bowl (1A)
CLASS 7A
DWYER (9-1): Would now be No. 2 seed in Region 4 with 43.10 points. This is down from last week’s No. 1 projected seed with 44.56 points, which was .06 ahead of then-projected No. 2 seed and national powerhouse St. Thomas Aquinas.
The repeat District 13-7A champion will almost certainly finish as the No. 2 seed due to St. Thomas Aquinas (now-No. 1 seed; 43.22 points) having a much more potent regular season schedule.
Week 10 wins for both Dwyer and St. Thomas Aquinas (District 14-7A champion):
Dwyer – defeated 7A West Boca Raton, 33-2
St. Thomas Aquinas – defeated Blanche Ely, 58-0
Key win for Dwyer: It’s all about the overall execution in each win.
Yes, this powerhouse team lost to 8A Atlantic, 30-13, in Week 2. But guess what? The Panthers have gone from good to great throughout the regular season. They have been playing lights out on both sides of the ball. Dwyer posted a impressive 33-2 victory over West Boca Raton in Week 10. This team has been handing out more 30 pieces than Kentucky Fried Chicken and Popeyes, as last Friday was the ninth time Dwyer posted a victory with 30 points or more, while holding opponents to 14 points or less.
Let that sink in for a moment.
All nine wins have been by big blowouts. All of them.
How would that not impress the FHSAA?
Remaining game: Regular season is complete.
Important note: Dwyer has essentially clinched the No. 2 seed in Region 4-7A and will await the FHSAA’s announcement of its opponent, first-round playoff date, and first-round playoff game, which will come next week.
PALM BEACH LAKES (6-3): Would now be on the outside looking in at No. 9 with 37.44 points. This team shockingly dropped three spots from last week’s projected No. 6 seed, when the Rams had 37.75 points.
Key win for Palm Beach Lakes: Give the Rams a whole lot of credit this year for their regular season schedule.
All three losses were to true powerhouses in Pahokee (1A; 28-19
defeat in Week 1), Dwyer (7A; 41-13 loss in Week 4), and undefeated Trinity Christian (5A; 25-6 loss). These are called quality losses, folks. The FHSAA looks pretty highly on that.
The six wins, meanwhile, have been impressive. Best win (arguably) for Lakes: a 31-21 win over 7A Forest Hill in Week 10.
Concerns: A 25-0 victory over former 8A playoff contender Seminole Ridge in Week 7 was previously considered to be the best win for Palm Beach Lakes. But a lot has happened since then. Let’s go through what transpired in Week 10.
Actually, two major things occurred, and they were both potentially devastating for Lakes.
After speaking a representative from the Florida High School Football website earlier today on our Twitter, the following was explained to us about the Palm Beach Lakes situation:
1. Pahokee’s 35-14 loss to Cocoa last week was a bad one. It reduced the points that Palm Beach Lakes got due to its Week 1 loss to Pahokee from 33 to 28, according to Florida High School Football.
2. Seminole Ridge’s shocking 34-31 loss to Jupiter was potentially devastating for Palm Beach Lakes. The Week 6 win over Seminole Ridge now nets 40 points for Palm Beach Lakes, down from the 45 points this team earned last week, according to Florida High School Football.
Bottom line: Palm Beach Lakes is not out of the playoff hunt. But it will need to beat Suncoast in the Soul Bowl this week and have Mater Charter Academy and South Miami (both currently tied as the No. 7 seed with 37.67 points; 0.23 ahead of Palm Beach Lakes) lose their games this week. This is probably the best case scenario for Palm Beach Lakes to earn a playoff spot.
Remaining game: Week 11 at Suncoast (6A)
FOREST HILL (7-2): Would no longer qualify for 7A playoffs, as this team dropped three spots this week from No. 7 to No. 10 with 36.89 points. Forest Hill was a projected postseason participant last week, when it was a No. 7 seed with 37.38 points.
Key win for Forest Hill: This team has won all of its games, except its Week 8 game against Dwyer and Week 10 against Palm Beach Lakes.
Concern: The Falcons blew a 14-12 halftime lead at home in Week 10 against Palm Beach Lakes, which turned out to be a devastating 31-21 loss on their Senior Night.
Combined with their 40-6 loss to No. 1 seed Dwyer, plus a relatively weak schedule compared to Palm Beach Lakes, this could very possibly spell playoff elimination for the Falcons. They had to win out, but failed to do so. The stakes couldn’t get any higher than that for last year’s surprise playoff team.
Remaining game: Week 11 at Spanish River (8A)
CLASS 8A
DELRAY BEACH ATLANTIC (9-0): Would remain as the No. 1 seed in Region 3 with 42.44 points. This is 0.56 less than last week’s rating of 43.00 points.
Key win for Atlantic: Where do we start?
Some people thought Atlantic would start the season at 0-4, with losses to Palm Beach Central, Dwyer, Pahokee, and Park Vista – and in that order.
Many others had them going 2-2 at best.
Almost nobody outside of the Eagles program thought they would go 4-0 to start the season.
But Palm Beach County’s No. 1 team went out and proved everyone wrong by taking down playoff contenders Palm Beach Central (8A; 14-0 win in Week 1), Dwyer (7A; 30-13 win in Week 2), Pahokee (1A; 35-21 win in Week 3), and Park Vista (8A; 21-6 win in Week 5).
What has happened since? The Eagles just keep rolling, as evidenced by their most recent Week 10 win against Boca Raton in a 14-7 victory. It was a challenge for them on their Senior Night, but they got the job done in a rivalry game. Last year’s 8A state runner-up will have the opportunity to go undefeated in the regular season. They will look to handle business on the road at Wellington on Friday night.
Remaining game: Week 11 at Wellington (8A)
PALM BEACH CENTRAL (8-1): Would remain at No. 3 seed in Region 3 with 40.56 points, down from last week’s total of 40.88 points.
Key win for Palm Beach Central: It’s all about the bounce back effort.
Since its season-opening 14-0 home loss to Atlantic, all eight wins have been legitimately convincing ones, and that looks good in the eyes of the FHSAA.
Palm Beach Central’s best effort was a 52-10 win over fellow 8A playoff contender Wellington in Week 4.
Remaining game: Week 11 at John I. Leonard (8A)
WELLINGTON (6-3): Would now be No. 4 seed with 38.89 points, up two spots from last week’s No. 6 seed but down from last week’s rating of 39.44 points.
This team can jostle its way to a home game in the first round of the Class 8A playoffs next week (Friday, Nov. 9). But they will have to find a way to pull off an absolute shocker over current projected No. 1 seed Atlantic at home this Friday night (Nov. 2).
Key wins for Wellington: 14-8 victory over Park Vista in Week 3; 24-13 win over Palm Beach Gardens in Week 9; scheduled games against Vero Beach (8A; 46-0 loss in Week 2), Palm Beach Central (8A; 52-10 loss in Week 4), and Dwyer (7A; 55-7 loss in Week 7).
Remaining game: Week 11 vs. Atlantic (8A)
PARK VISTA (6-3): Would still be eliminated from 8A playoff contention at No. 9 with 36.89 points this week. Though the rating is up from last week’s total of 36.50 points, it’s not enough to catch the current co-No. 7 seeds in Western and Piper (38.00 points each this week).
Key win – and major concern – for Park Vista: As crazy as this sound, the three combined losses are this team’s biggest accomplishment and biggest failure this season.
How is that?
Sure, the losses were disappointing and can ultimately lead to Park Vista’s elimination from playoff contention this year. But they were to playoff contenders Dwyer (7A; 40-0 loss in Week 1), Wellington (8A; 14-8 loss in Week 3), and Atlantic (8A; 21-7 loss in Week 5).
What we said two weeks ago: Park Vista’s four wins (prior to the Spanish River game and Seminole Ridge’s win over Pahokee in Week 9) were convincing. But the FHSAA likes this team’s overall strength of schedule more. It may be just enough to reach the playoffs again.
What we said last week: Park Vista must have a sense of urgency in its final two regular season games, just like it did in Monday night’s 65-7 blowout win over Spanish River. The margin of victory in both games can be the difference between this team sliding into a playoff spot and sitting at home for the postseason. Also, Seminole Ridge’s one-point victory over Pahokee did Park Vista no favors whatsoever.
What we’re saying now: Park Vista did great in its 28-7 home win over Santaluces last week. But its strength of schedule is simply a major concern this year, according to Florida High School Football.
Bottom line: It’s going to take a lot for Park Vista to reach the 8A playoffs again. But hey, anything can happen.
Suggestion for Park Vista: Instead of playing Pahokee in the kickoff classic (which it did win on the road), consider playing this Muck team – and maybe even Glades Central – in the regular season to earn FHSAA points.
Remaining game: Week 11 vs. Palm Beach Gardens (8A)
SEMINOLE RIDGE (5-4): Would be eliminated from Class 8A playoff contention right now at No. 10
with 35.89 points. This is a major drop (almost three full points) from last week’s No. 7 projected seed with 38.50 points. It comes a week after this team gained a whopping 2.07 (!) points just for squeaking by Pahokee (1A) in a then-season-saving 21-20 home win in Week 9.
Just two weeks ago, this team was projected to be on the outside looking in at No. 9/10 with 36.43 points. And now the Hawks are back on the outs because of a truly devastating 34-31 district loss to Jupiter (3-6).
Key win for Seminole Ridge: It’s quite simple. The Hawks toughed it out from start to finish and pulled out a shocking win over Pahokee to avoid near-certain elimination from playoff contention in Week 9. This was arguably Seminole Ridge’s most difficult game of the season, and this one was looked upon in a favorable light by the FHSAA last week.
Concern: Seminole Ridge’s three previous losses were to playoff contenders Wellington (8A; 22-21 loss in Week 6); Palm Beach Lakes (25-0 loss in Week 7), and Palm Beach Central (8A; 27-14 loss in Week 8). But the fourth loss to Jupiter will almost certainly eliminate this team from the playoffs.
Bottom line: Unless a miracle happens with them beating Royal Palm Beach and all teams currently ranked from No. 4 to No. 9 (Wellington – currently at No. 4 with 38.89 points; Plantation – currently at No. 5 with 38.56; Miramar – currently at No. 6 with 38.11 points; Western & Piper – currently tied at No. 7 with 38.00 points; Park Vista – currently on the outs at No. 9 with 36.89 points) losing on Friday night, Seminole Ridge should simply kiss the playoffs goodbye. The Jupiter loss on Senior Night was absolutely the worst defeat for any team in Palm Beach County this year – hands down.
Remaining game: Week 11 at Royal Palm Beach (7A)
Next and final FHSAA playoff contenders update: Tuesday, Nov. 6
