The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Kansas City Chiefs tonight on Monday Night Football. The Jaguars have started the season hot, entreating at 3-1, while the Chiefs began 0-2 but have won two straight to even their record at 2-2.

Jacksonville

Jacksonville traveled to San Francisco last week where they beat the 49ers 26-21, marking its first statement win of the Liam Coen era. The Jaguars continued their dominant rushing attack, which ranks fourth in the league.

Travis Etienne Jr. ran for 124 yards against the Niners, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Coen’s offensive scheme is known for its ground game; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense led the NFL in rushing a year ago under his play-calling.

 In addition to Etienne’s great play, the Jacksonville defense continued its suffocating start by forcing four turnovers Sunday. They now have a league-best 13 turnovers in just four games. 

Linebacker Devin Lloyd has been a key contributor to the defensive success that the Jaguars have enjoyed. He has a league leading 3 interceptions and has been all over the field collecting several tackles a game as well.

Under new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, the Jaguars have gone from one of the bottom defenses in the league to a turnover forcing machine. His aggressive style has rubbed off on his defense as they are always looking to make a play to get the ball back in the hands of their offense.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been off to a slow start this season. He has completed just 58% of his passes and has just 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. The struggles aren’t all on Lawrence though, the Jaguars pass-catchers lead the league in dropped passes and dropped pass percentage. 

Despite his struggle at the beginning of the year, Lawrence enjoyed his best game of the young season last week against San Francisco where he completed nearly 68% of his passes for 174 yards and a touchdown. The big number though, Lawrence didn’t turn the ball over for the first time all year. 

Kansas City

Kansas City started the season slow, but bounced back in a big way last week as they beat the Baltimore Ravens 37-20. This marked the first offensive explosion that Kansas City has had this campaign. 

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was excellent has he threw for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns and he also didn’t turn the ball over. 

Mahomes has been solid this year, but hasn’t played up to the expectations that he has earned over the course of his career. He’s a career low 61% completion percentage, but has enjoyed a 7 touchdown to 1 interception start to the year. His limiting of turnovers as helped keep what has been a lowly Kansas City offense in games.

Although the offense has had a slow start, the return of Xavier Worthy last week gave them a much needed spark. In Worthy’s first game of the season, he accounted for 5 catches for 83 yards and totaled 121 yards on the day. His speed and ability to put pressure on a secondary really allowed the Chiefs’ offense to thrive against the lowly Ravens defense. 

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense has been solid. They held Lamar Jackson and company to just 20 total point and the week before held the New York Giants to just 9. As a team they’re forcing about a turnover a game, but are sacking the quarterback almost 3 times a game.

Their defense is backed by all-pro defensive tackle Christ Jones. Jones has only reached the quarterback once, but his presence is felt on this defense. His dominance over his career has earned the respect of opposing offenses and has opened up the pass rush for his fellow line mates.

Matchup Breakdown

The Jaguars and Chiefs are both a half game back in their division and will look to be tied atop the division after tonight’s game. The Chiefs have owned the AFC West for the last nine seasons. On the other hand, the Jaguars are looking for their third division title since 2017.

This game features two solid defenses with offenses that have been on the rise. We have seen the Jaguars ability to force turnovers and the Chiefs ability to get to the passer. This game will ultimately come down to turnovers and quarterback play.

Mahomes seemed to break out of his slump last week against the Ravens and will look to build on that performance. Lawrence has been adjusting to the new offense and just hasn’t been very good to start the year. 

X Factors

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has struggled at the start of this year, but will look to build off his season-best game from last week. He has displayed a level of mastery pre-snap that we haven’t seen from the fifth-year quarterback before, but his accuracy issues and decision-making post snap are still cause for concern. Turnovers have plagued Lawrence across his career, but if he can continue turnover-free play like against 49ers the Jaguars figure to have a real shot.

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has largely been considered as the best quarterback in the league since he has been a starter, and his reputation of a winner precedes him. However, his level of play has taken a dip this year and before the Ravens game the offense looked lifeless. Mahomes is the engine that drives the entire Chiefs team and he will need to continue his play from a week ago.

Prediction: This is the biggest game the Jaguars have played in over a year. It is their chance to put themselves on the map in the AFC and establish themselves as a contender. The Chiefs are used to the primetime spotlight and are already established as a dynasty in the NFL. With that being said, look for Kansas City to come into Jacksonville and lose a dogfight.

Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Chiefs 20