It feels like just yesterday that Jacksonville Jaguars fans were celebrating the New York Jets victory over the Los Angeles Rams sparked by Frank Gore’s performance which led to the Jaguars sliding into the first overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft and with it the rights to consensus generational talent, quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Four years later, Lawrence’s play has a split view among fans in Jacksonville and around the rest of the league.
Many give Lawrence a pass for year one, as he was met with a disastrous roster and a coach in Urban Meyer whose tumultuous tenure made a bad situation worse. Lawrence showed flashes of what he could be as a quarterback, but turnover issues became a worry for some fans.
In year two, there was hope in the air for Lawrence and the Jaguars as they made a splash hire in Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson. His first season under Pederson started slow, but as the year went on Lawrence and the Jaguars made a miracle run to win the AFC South and eventually a playoff game in one of the greatest comebacks of all time.
In year three, the Jaguars signed star receiver Calvin Ridley, giving Lawrence a true No.1 receiver for the first time in his career. The Jaguars started 8-3 behind stellar play from Lawrence, and it looked like the Jaguars were on their way to another division championship and a potential No.1 seed in the AFC before he sprained his ankle on Sunday Night Football. Playing through injuries the remainder of the season, the Jaguars stalled and finished 9-8, missing the playoffs.
Year four was a mixture of more dysfunction within the organization and another year of Lawrence dealing with injuries that kept him out for several games. However, a backbone was built with the emergence of star receiver Brian Thomas Jr. who ended the season third in receiving yards as a rookie.
Going into year five of Lawrence’s career, he’s now going into his third regime as the Jaguars cleaned house and hired head coach Liam Coen and general manager James Gladstone. Armed with new weapons from both free agency and the draft, fans are hoping a healthy Lawrence and the Jaguars can once again make a run at the division.
While it appears Lawrence has severely underperformed his tag as a generational quarterback, there are several things that have been stacked against the young quarterback. First and foremost, Lawrence and the Jaguars have gone through three head coaches and three play callers in his first four years. That is three different systems that he has had to learn in the first four years of his career, so there has been a lack of continuity within the offense that he has run throughout his short stint in the league.
Another problem that Lawrence has faced is offensive line play. In his four seasons, the Jaguars offensive line has been bottom half of the league every year, including 2022, when they were 31st overall. Protection has been a constant problem for Lawrence, and it has hindered the Jaguars run game, making them a very one dimensional offense.
Lastly, Lawrence has had four No. 1 wide receivers in four years. His rookie season, DJ Chark went into the season with the idea of becoming the Jaguars future at receiver, but suffered a fractured ankle in Week 4, and the team moved on in the offseason. In the lone season the Jaguars made the playoffs in the Lawrence era, Christian Kirk was the first option. He then had Calvin Ridley for a year, and then after his departure the emergence of rookie Brian Thomas Jr. made him the clear cut No.1 option for the team. This Sunday will mark the first time the signal caller has gone into the season with the same first option as the year before, truly giving him a chance to build chemistry with his main weapon for the first time.
According to Supporting Cast Ranking — which averages several Pro Football Focus grades put the Jaguars at 26th overall during Lawrence’s four years in the league. Only the New York Giants and New York Jets ranked worse. Despite all these things stacked against Lawrence from changing coaching staffs, poor line play, a revolving door at receiver, and just overall dysfunction in the organization has he been as bad as media pundits and fans say?
Advanced stats would indicate that he’s actually performed at a high level for the situation that he inherited. Adjusted EPA per play is a metric that refines EPA (Expected Points Added) by accounting for factors that are outside of the control of the player and team such as strength of opponents, game situation, and even things like blocking and weather. By all accounts, this is one of the best metrics to judge the play of a quarterback in the NFL. Lawrence finished third in this metric in 2023 (first in the AFC) and then despite an injury-riddled season last year, he still finished top half in the league at 13th.
Another analytic Lawrence thrives in is DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). DVOA is a metric that measures a quarterback’s efficiency on a per play basis, comparing that quarterbacks success against what is deemed a league average expectation for any given situation. In this metric in 2022, Lawrence ranked above two elite quarterbacks in Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts.
This leads to the question the Jaguars and the league are asking. Is Trevor Lawrence a bust or is he just a star waiting to emerge? The answer to that question should be evident this season. Year five in the league brings in offensive-minded head coach Liam Coen who just led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to the fourth most points per game last year. Pair that with a reworked offensive line and several options at receiver, and the stars seem to be aligning for a second breakout year for Lawrence.
In our brief view of Lawrence in the preseason, he performed brilliantly, completing 14 of his 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. His passer rating of 115.4 was 30 points higher than his career average ,and the overall flow of this Jacksonville offense looked much cleaner than years prior.
If there were ever a time for Trevor Lawrence to live up to the claim of his generational talent it is now. Pressure is higher than ever entering his third regime and the fifth year of his NFL career. The 26-year old signal caller will open his campaign this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST against the Carolina Panthers.
