After an abysmal 7-18 record in August it looked like the Tampa Bay Rays 2025 campaign was coming to a close with a disappointing end. However, now in the midst of a six-game winning streak the Rays find themselves just 2.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners, a team they just swept, for the last Wild Card spot.
So how did a team left for dead revive itself and get to a place where they are playing meaningful baseball for the last month of the season? The easy answer is an explosive offense paired with outstanding pitching. The more in-depth answer. The Rays have been one of the unluckiest teams in baseball and now are starting to see things fall the way data would say that it should.
For starters, the Rays are currently sitting one game over .500 at 70-69 which would indicate average play, but their Pythagorean winning percentage is 76-63. The Pythagorean win percentage provides an expected win-loss record based on run differential. A couple of things that would ordinarily fall their way according to the Pythagorean model would have Tampa enjoying a record that is 13 games over .500 and comfortably in the playoffs.
This metric represents them losing tight games which realistically in Major League Baseball often comes down to a lucky bounce or a call going one way rather than the other and the Rays just haven’t had those decisive go their way as often as metrics think they should.
When it comes to talent, the Rays lineup has legitimate firepower. While the Rays can always rely on the steady bat of Yandy Diaz who is enjoying another great year at the dish hitting .294 with 22 home runs and an .832 OPS, the real story is 22-year-old star Junior Caminero. Caminero is hitting .263 with 40 home runs, 102 RBIs, and an .844 OPS.
This lineup has everything it needs to be successful not just the remainder of this year, but also moving forward. They have speed everywhere and have wreaked havoc on the base paths as their aggressive run game has led to them lead the league in stolen bases by 31 more steals than the next team. They have guys hitting for power and for average and we are now seeing everything come together for this lineup.
The pitching staff has also been excellent for Tampa Bay during this recent stretch. With the addition of Griffin Jax at the trade deadline, the bullpen has maintained a top-10 ERA this season with no drop-off in the rotation. All-Star Drew Rasmussen has enjoyed a career year, posting a 2.74 ERA with 115 strikeouts in 134 2/3 innings. The Rays rank seventh in ERA and have held opponents to a .237 batting average.
The Rays have also continued their reputation as one of the strongest defensive teams in baseball. They rank seventh in defensive runs saved with 34 and are fifth in fielding percentage at .987. The defense’s consistency has complemented the pitching staff and helped keep Tampa Bay competitive when the offense has struggled.
Where does this leave the Rays? They sit 2.5 games back with 23 to play. The schedule isn’t favorable, with 13 of those games coming against teams that are comfortably in the playoffs, including two series against the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays. The margin for error is slim, but Tampa Bay has put itself in position to make a legitimate push to be playing baseball in October. If they get in this team is equipped for a deep run that could catch the league off guard.
With the anticipated return of All-Star Jonathan Aranda, outfielder Jonny DeLuca, and bullpen arm Hunter Bigge the Rays figure to be even deeper in this stretch run at the end of the season. After having battled injuries for the duration of the year the Rays seem to finally be getting healthy at the perfect time.
Rays fans don’t have to look far for inspiration. Fourteen years ago, the Rays erased a nine-game deficit in September to clinch the AL Wild Card on the final day of the season in what became known as Game 162. That night was capped by a miracle 7-0 comeback that came to fruition with a walkoff home run by Rays legend Evan Longoria. This year’s deficit is smaller, and the team is trending in the right direction to give this fanbase an unforgettable moment reminiscent of 2011.
